With nominations for the 2026 Academy Awards being announced this Thursday, I wanted to preempt them by a few days and get my predictions out to the world. I’m not clairvoyant or anything, but wouldn’t it be cool if a bunch of my predictions—heck, maybe even all of them—were right?
Honestly, there are a few categories where I think my guesses wouldn’t be terribly educated, so rather than submitting to you arbitrary predictions for Production Design or Editing, for example, I’ll only be giving you my predictions for the categories where I feel like I have something qualified to say. And, of course, these are not my “heart” picks; what you see here is what I think will happen.
*If you’re wondering what the weird category order is about, I’m pretty sure this is the order these awards are presented in at the Oscars. If I’m wrong, I don’t know what to tell you. Who do I look like, Oscar?
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Sean Penn has been my personal bet to win in March since I saw One Battle After Another, but with the way awards season has gone so far, it’s truly anybody’s game. It would be super cool, though, for Jacob Elordi to win. His meteoric rise to legitimate dramatic actor—and one with such a unique physical presence—is worth celebrating.
Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
I’ve made my displeasure with the weakness of this past year’s animated slate clear to Morgan, but I do think there are still a few heavy hitters here. I’d be shocked if KPop Demon Hunters doesn’t win, but everyone should still go watch Little Amélie. Lowkey my favorite animated film this year.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Weapons
I had to do a little bit of research to make sure I didn’t mix up my original and adapted screenplays, but this list is still crazy. I do feel like the award is Sinners‘ to lose, but you won’t see me surprised if Weapons pulls off an unlikely win. Love it or not, the film was incredibly unique (and unsettling).
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
I loved all of these movies and all of these screenplays, but in terms of frontrunners, I think One Battle After Another should consider itself lucky that it’s not competing against Marty Supreme and Sinners. It’s not a shoe-in, I suppose, but I feel like it’s got it in the bag in the Adapted category (and it would have a lot of trouble in Original Screenplay).
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Usually, I wouldn’t be one to endorse multiple acting nominees from the same movie, but Fanning and Ibsdotter Lilleaas are just too great in Sentimental Value. My personal preference leans toward Ibsdotter Lilleaas, but both performances are Oscar-worthy. This race is wide-open, too, especially after Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe win. My heart’s with Grande, but my head is with Madigan for now.
Music (Original Song)
“Dear Me”, Diane Warren: Restless
“Golden”, KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You”, Sinners
“No Place Like Home”, Wicked: For Good
“The Girl in the Bubble”, Wicked: For Good
This category is not especially deep this year, due to the lack of new original musicals. The two new songs from Wicked: For Good probably don’t get nominated in a deeper year, but I am glad that four of the five nominees are songs used in the narrative. My loyal fans know I’m particular about that.
International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident (France)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
I’m still working on getting to all of these movies, but even without seeing all of these movies, I know the race is going to be close. It seems like Sentimental Value is a lock for a Best Picture nomination, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll win the Oscar here. It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent have been making some serious noise.
Cinematography
Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another
Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
Łukasz Żal, Hamnet
While I’ve had strong opinions about who will get nominated and who I think will win, I haven’t had many categories where I’m very convicted about who I want to win. That’s not the case here. If Adolpho Veloso doesn’t win for Train Dreams, I riot. My torch and pitchfork are ready.
Music (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein
Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another
Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme
Hans Zimmer, F1
All five of these scores and composers are great, and I think it’s a two-horse race between Göransson and Greenwood. However, let me remind you that 2026 Natey winner Michael Giacchino wasn’t even shortlisted for The Fantastic 4: First Steps. Strike one, Academy. Don’t do it again.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
I know most of the discourse surrounding this award right now is about Chalamet and Jordan, but I’m going to sidestep all of that for a second to gush about Ethan Hawke. He was my NTFCA vote for Best Actor, and I’m so glad that his campaign is really heating up these last few weeks. I know people watching the Oscars will be like, “What is Blue Moon?”, but he’s truly amazing in it. Totally deserved.
Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Just like Chalamet-Jordan in Best Actor, the discussion here has really only been about PTA and Coogler. I’m not going to get into the politics there, but this awards season has all signs pointing to PTA. Also, I’m not an It Was Just an Accident superfan or anything, but Panahi’s direction was some of the most confident and engaging of the year, especially considering the circumstances under which this film was made.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
I had Cynthia Erivo in my top 5 for a while, but I think the fire for Wicked: For Good has pretty much gone out by this point. It’ll still receive a bunch of nominations, but beyond Grande and Paul Tazewell’s costumes, I don’t see a lot of wins. Erivo was a victim of that decline for me, and the fabulous Chase Infiniti has taken her place.
Best Picture
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
The Secret Agent
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
I think I’m leaning more into the international contenders than other people are, but after last year had multiple international Best Picture nominees, I think the Academy will continue to swing. I’m predicting a fair share of blockbusters, smaller films, and international fare in what should be at least a three-horse race (maybe even more) for the night’s most coveted award.
This is my first time predicting nominees, and boy, was it a lot of work. I’m hoping that it all pays off when my picks prove to be 100% correct on Thursday and we can all come back to this post and laugh. Until then, happy awards season, and go find a good movie to watch!
Nate At The Movies 
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