Nate At The Movies

Actress in a Supporting Role

❤️ Heart: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
🧠 Mind: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Though I think Weapons and Sentimental Value are going to have their work cut out for them in a year where Sinners and One Battle After Another will be trading haymakers, the wide open Supporting Actress race is one where they could both capitalize. Madigan has the awards season success to back up my prediction, taking home both the Critics’ Choice Award and the Actor Award, but Ibsdotter Lilleaas gave my favorite nominated performance this year. In a year with a lot of short-runtime nominees (and no Ariana Grande, much to my frustration), Ibsdotter Lilleaas brought the thunder in her limited time on screen. Between her and her Sentimental Value costar, I’d give it to her.

Animated Feature Film

❤️ Heart: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
🧠 Mind: KPop Demon Hunters

You read that right; dissent in Animated Feature Film! While I know KPop Demon Hunters will win—it’s the only animated film that was a cultural moment in 2025—people are sleeping on Little Amélie or the Character of Rain. What a gorgeous and touching film, and I’m glad that the Oscars introduced me to such a gem. This is another example of exposure winning the Oscar—and I’d love for KPop Demon Hunters to win, too—but then again, Flow beat The Wild Robot last year. Anything can happen.

Animated Short Film

❤️ Heart: Retirement Plan
🧠 Mind: Butterfly

Inventive and expressive animation styles were in just as high supply as flat, conventional 2D animation was in this year’s nominees, and I think the Academy will lean towards the experimental here. Butterfly was not only a surprisingly tough story with an unexpected traumatic twist—it had some of the best and most innovative animation I’ve seen this year. Its painterly style made for some of the coolest transitions I’ve seen. On the other hand, Retirement Plan‘s simple 2D animation allowed its message about taking action before it’s too late to really shine. Toss in some great humor, and you’ve got my winner.

Costume Design

❤️ Heart: Frankenstein
🧠 Mind: Frankenstein

I’m still not well-versed in the costume design world, which likely points to why I’m having a hard time calling any of these movies’ costume design special. My brain immediately goes to makeup and hairstyling, where Frankenstein would easily win, but costumes? That seems more open. However, I think a good portion of the voting body may be in the same boat that I am, and the costumes in Frankenstein were still pretty good. I expect Frankenstein to rack up wins technically, but probably nowhere else.

Makeup and Hairstyling

❤️ Heart: Frankenstein
🧠 Mind: Frankenstein

As mentioned previously, Makeup and Hairstyling feels like Frankenstein‘s to lose. I think they could win this award off of Jacob Elordi’s makeup and prosthetics alone. This category doesn’t feel close, and it’s actually a pretty strong set of nominees. Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister were big surprises for me and featured great makeup and hairstyling; I just don’t think those films had the reach that Frankenstein did. At the end of the day, people vote for these awards, and if they didn’t watch your movie (which, apparently, happens more than you’d like from a voting body), then you’re not getting their vote.

Casting (NEW)

❤️ Heart: Marty Supreme
🧠 Mind: Sinners

Because there’s absolutely no precedent for this award, it’s hard to say where it will go in its first year. I’m going to be looking at this one like an Ensemble award—do the actors cast work well together, and do they get the most out of their roles? In that case, two films emerge: Marty Supreme (which masterfully employed both seasoned actors and non-actors) and Sinners (everyone in the ensemble went to WORK). Because the award is new, I’d guess this one leans Sinners again, but if I had my pick, Safdie’s ability to get the most out of his non-actors would give Marty Supreme the edge.

Live Action Short Film

❤️ Heart: Jane Austen’s Period Drama
🧠 Mind: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Having just seen the Live Action Short Film nominees yesterday, these are still pretty fresh in the brain. For its sheer creativity and ambition alone, Two People Exchanging Saliva seems like it would be an Academy favorite. The craft was on the same level as the story, and that story was bonkers and clever and even a bit suave. However, if I had my way, the raunchy humor of Jane Austen’s Period Drama would take this. I don’t know the last short film to make me laugh that much, but the marriage of Austenian aesthetics and the disclosure of women’s health facts really worked for me.

Actor in a Supporting Role

❤️ Heart: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
🧠 Mind: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

As has been the case since I saw One Battle After Another in September, I think Sean Penn should be taking home this award (he may get it mailed to his house; who knows if he’ll be at the ceremony). With recent wins at the BAFTAs and Actor Awards, all of the momentum has swung in Penn’s direction. I think there’s a chance Delroy Lindo takes it, on account of the “legacy treatment” a few past Oscars winners have received. And while I’m not officially predicting this, I’d also fully support total chaos ensuing and Jacob Elordi pulling off the upset win. He did pocket a Critics’ Choice Award earlier this awards season, and with so much back-and-forth between Penn and Lindo, they could ruin both of their chances and allow Elordi to slide in.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

❤️ Heart: One Battle After Another
🧠 Mind: One Battle After Another

There was no shortage of unique stories in the Adapted Screenplay nominees this year, but I think One Battle After Another‘s effortless execution and real-life parallels put it a head above the rest. I would have no problem with Bugonia winning in this category, though I think that film is going to have a pretty hard time picking up Oscars against heavyweights that a lot more people saw. The price for entry for Yorgos Lanthimos is still pretty high, even with Poor Things surprising as an awards season darling in 2023.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

❤️ Heart: Sinners
🧠 Mind: Sinners

What a terrible year for all of these other great screenplays to come out. In a year without Sinners, Marty Supreme‘s bonkers story or Blue Moon‘s surreal hangout would win, but alas. I didn’t think that I was going to predict so many wins for Sinners coming in, but I just can’t see the voters going in a different direction in many of these categories. I’d love if Blue Moon won, though; this great film will likely go home trophy-less, and that’s a darn shame.

Music (Original Score)

❤️ Heart: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
🧠 Mind: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

I wrote all the way back in April that I would “flip my shit” if Sinners didn’t win any music Oscars, and while I think we all know where Original Song is going, Original Score belongs to Sinners. And that’s not even to say there weren’t other nominated scores that I enjoyed—I loved One Battle After Another‘s suspended strings and frenetic melodies, and Bugonia‘s score was pompous and programmatic and super fun—but Göransson’s score reinvented the genre. His music told the story, sometimes more effectively than the characters did. The man is the next legendary film composer, and he’s going to add another Oscar to the trophy case this year.

Music (Original Song)

❤️ Heart: “Golden” by EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and Rei Ami, KPop Demon Hunters
🧠 Mind: “Golden” by EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and Rei Ami, KPop Demon Hunters

Need I say anything? “Golden” was the song of the summer and the song of the year, coming from the surprise best original musical of the year, too. This banger was Grammy-nominated, for goodness’ sake! While you could argue Sinners‘ total body of work—score and songs—outclasses KPop Demon Hunters, no one else is truly in competition for this “Golden” trophy.

Documentary Feature Film

❤️ Heart: Cutting Through Rocks
🧠 Mind: The Perfect Neighbor

The Perfect Neighbor and Cutting Through Rocks were my favorite two nominees in a category that I’m still learning to love (not a big documentary guy), and The Perfect Neighbor‘s high accessibility on Netflix gives it the edge over its peers. The Alabama Solution was the only other nominee available on a streaming service, so if viewers wanted to see these other films, they really had to want it. If they put in the work, though, they would find the hopeless and hopeful story of Sara Shahverdi in Cutting Through Rocks quite moving. They may even vote for it; I know I would.

Documentary Short Film

❤️ Heart: All the Empty Rooms
🧠 Mind: All the Empty Rooms

Again, All the Empty Rooms has a great chance because of its presence on Netflix, and it’s my personal pick because of my connection to it as a teacher. It’s also the only short film to ever make me cry, which earned it major points. Voters do seem to learn towards current events in their International Feature Film and Documentary votes, so Children No More—set on the streets of Gaza—would also make a lot of sense as a potential winner. That is, if people saw it. I had to go to a dang art museum to see it; no theaters were showing it!

International Feature Film

❤️ Heart: Sentimental Value
🧠 Mind: Sentimental Value

As far as awards campaigns go, it doesn’t feel like Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent have done much of anything. It’s a toss-up where International Feature Film goes, since both films are also nominated for Best Picture, but it’s hard to argue that the nine nominations Sentimental Value has will turn into zero trophies. Only four films have ever had that many nominations and left empty-handed, and I don’t think Sentimental Value will become the fifth.

Film Editing

❤️ Heart: One Battle After Another
🧠 Mind: One Battle After Another

My sentiments about One Battle After Another‘s screenplay carry over to Editing. That movie positively flows from scene to scene, and can we talk about the car chase scene? I felt like I was rolling on those hills with Willa; that was one of the best scenes of the year. Editing also usually points to Best Picture frontrunners, and while I won’t spoil my prediction yet, we all know One Battle After Another is a frontrunner there.

Production Design

❤️ Heart: Frankenstein
🧠 Mind: Frankenstein

I know there are a lot of people out there that weren’t as high on Frankenstein as I was, but those people are going to be proven as foolish tonight. Technically speaking, Frankenstein was impressive, and with it being hard for some to distinguish between Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design, I think Frankenstein has a legitimate chance to just take all of them. If I’m right, it’ll be funny to look back and see Frankenstein in 3rd place for total wins after it received so much less discourse than the two Best Picture frontrunners.

Sound

❤️ Heart: F1
🧠 Mind: F1

We can call Sound this year a two-horse race all we want—and yes, Sirāt has legitimately great sound design, especially in a theater—but this award belonged to F1 before the movie even came out. Joseph Kosinski and awesome sound design go together like, well, race cars and awesome sound design. What a theatrical experience, too—the sound design put me right in the cars, and it was glorious.

Visual Effects

❤️ Heart: Avatar: Fire and Ash
🧠 Mind: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Another uninteresting chalk pick here; sorry about that. It’s hard to argue that any film should win the Visual Effects Oscar over the Avatar franchise, which continued to push the envelope visually in 2025. It may not have been the step up that the franchise had from 2009 to 2022, but they’re still head and shoulders above the rest. Even though I’m forecasting an easy win for Avatar: Fire and Ash here, don’t sleep on the “fire and ash” of some of the other nominees—Sinners and The Lost Bus, specifically. ‘Twas the year of fire, I suppose.

Cinematography

❤️ Heart: Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
🧠 Mind: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

This is one of the few times where I think the politics of awards season are going to get in the way of the best possible film winning. Train Dreams played like a series of great American paintings and has played in my head for the better part of the last four months. However, the story around Autumn Durald Arkapaw may be just too good for some voters to pass up, especially when it supports the Sinners supremacy narrative. I’ve been talking about how mad I’ll be if Train Dreams loses Cinematography since November, and if Sinners wins, I’ll still be mad, but I won’t show it. If I can help it.

Actor in a Leading Role

❤️ Heart: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
🧠 Mind: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

In an age where there aren’t a lot of Timothée Chalamet truthers anymore, I’m still beating the drum for him to win his first Oscar. He could’ve won it for a myriad of roles, but his performance in Marty Supreme really felt like a culmination of his whole career. Has Chalamet potentially hurt his chances with his ballet and opera comments? Sure. I don’t think it’s enough to dethrone him, though, even with a fervent final push from the very impressive Michael B. Jordan. Both deserve the Oscar, for sure, but I lean Timmy.

Directing

❤️ Heart: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
🧠 Mind: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

PTA has been on an absolute roll this awards season, winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and the BAFTA. This is his fourth Best Director nomination, and with this flurry of wins behind him, it seems like a done deal. Ryan Coogler could always slip in, depending on how Sinners-crazy the voting body is, but history is on PTA’s side. Well, in this one respect; his 0-3 record on previous nominations isn’t, but that’s about to change!

Actress in a Leading Role

❤️ Heart: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
🧠 Mind: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

If there was any award at this year’s Oscars that had a chance of crowning a unanimous winner, it would have to be Best Actress. Jessie Buckley has swept the major awards and delivered a powerhouse, one-of-the-best-of-the-decade performance in Hamnet. Could Emma Stone maybe steal it away from Buckley, as she’s been known to do (Poor Things, wink wink)? I would say yes, but actually, absolutely not. Buckley’s got it in the bag.

Best Picture

❤️ Heart: One Battle After Another
🧠 Mind: Sinners

Finally! After a bunch of picks where my heart and mind agreed, I’m split on Best Picture! This race felt pretty open in December, but as Hamnet and Marty Supreme faded to the background, Sinners and One Battle After Another asserted themselves as the favorites. While I have Sinners missing in many of the above-the-line categories, including Best Director and Best Actor, I think they’ll flip the ceremony on its head and take home Best Picture.

Both films were fantastic, that’s undeniable. One Battle After Another was my favorite film of the year, and Sinners was #4. I saw both twice in theaters, which I don’t do a lot, so you know they’re legit. Where I think Sinners finally found an edge, though, was in its cultural impact. Whether it was Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance (triple if you’re a real nerd), Ludwig Göransson’s outstanding score and songs, or just the hot vampires, Sinners became a cultural touchstone in a way that One Battle After Another never even approached. It’s hard to see an industry-shifting 16 Oscar nominations resulting in something other than a Best Picture win.

Nate’s Predictions, Ranked