Welcome to the first awards season post of the year! Reasonably speaking, I am way too early to be making predictions about the Oscars—we’re still closer on the calendar to last year’s ceremony than next year’s—but why not start the fun now? There have already been a ton of awards contenders released in 2026, but with more than five months left in the year, these predictions are bound to shake up. There is a small part of me, though, that wants to be able to say, “See? I said The Debut would be a Best Picture nominee back in July!”. I do this for that small part of me.
Just like last year’s nomination predictions, I won’t be making predictions in the categories that I have less knowledge in—namely the technicals, like Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. We’re looking strictly at the above-the-line categories, plus a few that I feel especially knowledgeable in, like Music and Animated Feature Film.
Without further ado, away we go! Here’s hoping I’m 100% right come January!
Actor in a Supporting Role
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
We’re already exercising our speculation muscles in Best Supporting Actor—three of these movies haven’t even come out, and I only saw The Odyssey last week. I know having two actors in the same movie nominated for the same award is uncommon, but Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas got it done last year, so why can’t it happen again? This category is also the first place you’ll notice by bullishness about The Debut; the Academy loves Jesse Eisenberg, and Giamatti earned a Best Actor nomination as recently as 2024. I can see another nomination in his future.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Olivia Wilde, Behemoth!
Both actress categories seem pretty thin at this point in the year, but there has been one constant amid all this uncertainty: Inde Navarrette. She has dominated movie culture for the last three months thanks to her horrifying performance in Obsession, and after Amy Madigan’s nomination and win for Weapons last year, I can totally see Navarrette garnering another acting nomination for a horror movie. We should make this a trend.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Tom Cruise, Digger
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Sebastian Stan, Fjord
It’s looking like some of the greats are going to be duking it out for Best Actor this year. What a gift it is to have potentially-career-best performances from Chalamet, Cruise, and Damon in the same year. There isn’t a clear frontrunner here yet—only two of these movies have released—but pitting Odysseus against Paul Atreides and Tom Cruise? Get your popcorn ready.
Actress in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Zendaya, The Drama
There are seemingly very few female-led prestige movies releasing this year, so this category was sort of a crapshoot. The Debut makes an appearance again—Jesse Eisenberg said he wrote this movie for Julianne Moore, so I imagine she’ll go nuclear—but this race is wide open. I’ve seen three of these performances so far, and if I had to pick a winner now, it would be Olivia Wilde in The Invite, though I think her direction on that movie was her more impressive performance.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Digger
Disclosure Day
Obsession
The Debut
Wild Horse Nine
When I came out of my press screening of Disclosure Day, I wrongly assumed that everyone thought it was a masterpiece. I’m still confident that Spielberg on name and reputation alone will pick up a number of nominations, but we’ll have to see how Universal’s campaign goes. They have bigger fish—The Odyssey—but it’s Spielberg; you have to think he’ll be there. I’d also love to see Obsession get some love here, but maybe this is a revenge pick; I was certain Weapons would get a screenplay nomination last year.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
The Invite
The Odyssey
The Social Reckoning
This was one of the categories I was the least confident in predicting. The Odyssey feels like a lock, but beyond that, who knows. Project Hail Mary and The Invite have been two of my favorite movies of the year, but it remains to be seen if they’ll develop awards legs. Project Hail Mary has a real uphill battle, having released in March, but I’m hoping it becomes this year’s Sinners and persists until next January. It certainly deserves it.
Directing
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
There were few categories where I felt like my predictions could actually be 100% right, but I’m pretty confident about Directing. There are plenty of directors with Oscars experience here—literally everyone but Wilde—and yes, I’m still pretty bullish about Spielberg. This category has included at least one woman in all but one year in the 2020s, and I think Wilde fits the bill this year. If you’ve seen The Invite, I think you’ll agree.
Cinematography
Greig Fraser, Project Hail Mary
Hoyte van Hoytema, The Odyssey
Janusz Kamiński, Disclosure Day
Emmanuel Lubezki, Digger
Linus Sandgren, Dune: Part Three
Look at all these big-budget science fiction and fantasy movies! Some of the best cinematographers of the last decade make an appearance here, so picking a winner feels impossible. Like most of the categories it’ll be a part of, it seems like The Odyssey would be the favorite to win, but I’m pretty confident that, if Project Hail Mary is going to take any award home, it’ll be for Cinematography. Greig Fraser cut his teeth on the Dune movies and brought the heat in Project Hail Mary; he’d be my pick to win.
Music (Original Score)
Carter Burwell, Wild Horse Nine
Ludwig Göransson, The Odyssey
Emile Mosseri, The Debut
Daniel Pemberton, Project Hail Mary
John Williams, Disclosure Day
It broke my heart to exclude my man Michael Giacchino, who’s writing the score for Taika Waititi’s Klara and the Sun, but the category is just too stacked this year. There have been some fantastic scores so far this year—of course, I’m partial to Pemberton’s Interstellar-inspired score for Project Hail Mary—but this is, yet again, Ludwig Göransson’s Oscar to lose. He is on a generational run, completely reinventing himself with each new movie, and he should already be considered among the GOATs of the craft—including John Williams, who will almost certainly earn a nomination at 94 years old(!).
Music (Original Song)
“Along the Way”, Moana
“Chains of Love”, Wuthering Heights
“How to Write a Song (Without You)”, Power Ballad
“I Knew It, I Knew You”, Toy Story 5
“When I’m Home”, The Odyssey
I didn’t realize until I was writing these nominees down how much Disney is going to body this category this year. I didn’t even include SZA’s great end credits song from Hoppers. Do I think Disney will win? Hard to say. Their best chance is Taylor Swift’s Toy Story 5 tearjerker, but it’s hard to argue against a Travis Scott-Ludwig Göransson collab in The Odyssey. I’m also not terribly confident in my Power Ballad nomination. Don’t get me wrong, the song is solid, but I wanted to pick something from The Debut. Can’t really pick a nominee from a movie that hasn’t come out, though.
Animated Feature Film
Forgotten Island
Hoppers
Ray Gunn
Toy Story 5
Wildwood
Animated Feature Film is the other category where I always feel extremely confident, probably because I’ve got a closer eye on animation than most critics do. Again, Disney will dominate—even if Hexed doesn’t make the cut—but I’ve believed since it was announced last year that Wildwood is going to win this award. I’m reading the book in October, and every trailer I’ve seen looks amazing. Laika hasn’t really missed, and from the looks of it, this could be their best movie yet.
Best Picture
Digger
Disclosure Day
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
Project Hail Mary
The Debut
The Invite
The Odyssey
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Even though we’re early in the year, I feel surprisingly good about my list of nominees. This list has some excellent variety, from huge blockbusters like Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary to international flair (Fjord could become the fourth Palme d’Or winner of the 2020s to also be nominated for Best Picture) and plenty of movies beginning with “The”. Since it’s July, the Best Picture race is wide open, but don’t be surprised when The Odyssey wins seven Oscars and takes home the night’s biggest award.
I’ve never made predictions this early in the year, so it should either be really fun or really disheartening to return to these lists and see how I’m doing. My more informed predictions will drop in January, but until then, go find a movie to watch—especially one of these—and let me know your thoughts!
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